Where your recurringrevenue is headed.
Recurring revenue grows by compounding — and quietly leaks through churn at the same time. Enter your MRR, your new-business growth rate, and your revenue churn to project MRR and ARR forward month by month, with the net rate that actually decides the curve.
Your recurring revenue
Monthly recurring revenue today.
New MRR added each month, as a % of MRR.
% of MRR lost each month to cancellations & downgrades.
How far ahead to model.
The trajectory
MRR in 12 mo
$56,253
ARR then
$675,040
Net monthly growth
9.0%
Growth minus churn.
Total growth
181.3%
MRR: now vs then
Projected MRR
Sensitivity · churn caps the curve
Where you land by revenue churn
| Monthly churn | Net growth | MRR in 12mo |
|---|---|---|
| 0% | 12.0% | $77,920 |
| 2% | 10.0% | $62,769 |
| 4% | 8.0% | $50,363 |
| 6% | 6.0% | $40,244 |
| 9% | 3.0% | $28,515 |
Churn fights compounding every month, so its effect on the year-end number is far bigger than it looks. A few points of churn can be the difference between a flat line and a hockey stick.
Your move
Net growth is where the curve is won. Let's lift yours.
MRR $20,000 → $56,253 in 12 months ($675,040 ARR) at 9.0% net.
Acquisition gets the attention, but churn usually decides the curve. Send me your numbers and I'll show you whether to spend on growth or plug retention first — free, on a 30-minute call.
Plain English
Recurring revenue is a tug-of-war.
MRR is your monthly recurring revenue — the predictable subscription income you can count on each month. ARR is simply that annualized: MRR times twelve. Together they're the heartbeat of any subscription business, because unlike one-off sales, they compound: this month's revenue is next month's starting line.
But two forces pull on that line at once. New business adds MRR; churn and downgrades take it away. What actually drives your growth curve is the net of the two — new-business growth minus revenue churn. A business adding 12% a month and losing 3% grows at a net 9%, and it's that net rate, compounded, that decides where you land.
This calculator projects MRR forward month by month at your net rate, gives you the ARR at each end, and shows the curve. It makes the brutal arithmetic of churn visible: high churn doesn't just slow growth, it caps it — and small changes to the net rate swing the year-end number enormously.
The formula
Net monthly growth = New-business growth − churn · MRR compounds at that rate; ARR = MRR × 12
$20,000 MRR growing 12% and churning 3% nets +9% a month. Compounded over 12 months that's about $56,000 MRR — roughly $675,000 ARR, up from $240,000.
Read the curve
Net growth is negative.
Churn is beating new business — the curve bends down no matter how hard you sell. Fix retention first; you can't acquire your way out of a leaky bucket.
Growth fine, churn creeping up.
Churn compounds against you. A point of churn now costs far more a year out — protect retention before it eats the growth rate.
Strong net rate, small base.
The percentage is great; the absolute numbers are small. Keep the rate up while the base compounds — early months matter most.
Mature, low growth.
At scale, even small net rates move big dollars. Expansion revenue (upsells) often beats new logos for lifting the net rate here.
Lift the net rate
01Cut churn first
Reducing churn lifts the net growth rate one-for-one and compounds — usually cheaper than buying equivalent new business.
02Add expansion revenue
Upsells and seat growth lift MRR from customers you already have, often pushing net retention above 100%.
03Protect the base
A dollar retained is worth more than a dollar acquired, because it keeps compounding instead of resetting.
04Watch net revenue retention
If expansion outweighs churn, you grow even with zero new customers — the holy grail of recurring revenue.
05Annualize to plan
Use ARR for hiring and runway decisions; it smooths the monthly noise into a number you can budget against.
06Model before you hire
Project the curve before committing fixed costs — net rate decides whether the plan funds itself.
The vocabulary
- MRR
- Monthly recurring revenue — predictable subscription income per month.
- ARR
- Annual recurring revenue — MRR × 12.
- Revenue churn
- % of MRR lost each month to cancellations and downgrades.
- Net growth rate
- New-business growth minus churn — what actually drives the curve.
- Net revenue retention
- Revenue kept from existing customers including expansion; above 100% means you grow without new logos.
MRR & ARR questions
Take your new-business growth rate, subtract your revenue churn rate, and compound the net rate month over month. MRR growing 12% and churning 3% grows at a net 9% per month. ARR is the resulting MRR times twelve.
Keep going
A calculator tells you what. A call tells you what to do about it.
Send me the account behind these numbers. I'll tell you straight where the money's leaking and what I'd fix first — free, and you keep it whether you hire me or not.